David Hay

As Tech Trade Falters, Value Stocks Are Breaking Out | David Hay

• Top takeaway Hay says he has taken partial profits on his crude oil futures after WTI moved from about 69 at the end of June to roughly 93 by the time of recording, still holds a large contract position, and believes any dip should be bought.
• He stresses the oil thesis was not built on the Iran conflict, pointing instead to a physical market trading far above futures, Asian physical oil near 170 in April and May, reduced Red Sea capacity, Hormuz and Mandeb risk, and attacks on Russian tankers.
• His base case is a range-bound oil market with an equilibrium around 80 to 90, with upside spikes possible, and he sees more remaining upside in energy equities than in the commodity itself.
• He points to industry capex where roughly 90 percent over the past decade went to holding production flat and only 10 percent to growth, and says the agency's superglut call is wrong given the shortage.
• He flags risks he thinks are not priced, including foreign capital being pulled out of US assets, a yen rally that could repatriate up to about a trillion dollars, a 30-year Treasury yield breakout at 5.18 percent with 6 percent a real threat to stocks, and AI capex running ahead of what can physically be built.

The guest argues oil's rally from $69 to the low $90s reflects a supply squeeze built on a decade of maintenance-only industry spending. WTI (West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. crude benchmark) is his yardstick, with a $70 to $100 range and upside spikes expected. He prefers energy equities over crude futures, naming EOG Resources as a specific pick trading near 10 times earnings. Uranium mirrors oil's late-June setup: depleted inventory, Russian enrichment reliance and new reactor demand tightening a neglected market. His real warning is market structure, as AI concentration, margin debt and possible Japanese capital repatriation could swamp passive inflows.

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Highlights from the Spring 2026 Thoughtful Money conference featuring 15+ expert speakers discussing macroeconomic trends and recession risks. Lacy Hunt delivered the keynote address, followed by presentations from Ed Dowd, Luke Gromen, Brent Johnson, and Lyn Alden among others. Jeff Clark provided a bonus video focused specifically on gold and silver mining stocks for resource investors.