David Cates

Denison Mines Moving Toward Uranium Production | David Cates

• Top takeaway He argues Phoenix ISR will be the first new large-scale uranium mine in the region since Cigar Lake, with a roughly two-year construction timeline putting Denison ahead of other new entrants of comparable scale expected before the early 2030s.
• He emphasizes that Phoenix is the first in-situ recovery uranium mine in Canada — drilling wells rather than sinking a shaft or building a mill — which he argues is why the construction timeline is so short.
• He commits to a measured contracting strategy, noting 8 million pounds contracted and ~7 million pounds in advanced negotiations, but says remaining life-of-mine production is 'not on sale right now' until the market progresses further.
• He frames the financing approach as minimizing equity dilution by drawing down the physical uranium position (acquired at ~$30/lb, with fixed-price sales at ~$95/lb) alongside a US-style convertible bond, while flagging the Saskatchewan labor market as tight and Indigenous-owned contractors as central to the build.
• He lays out a sequencing thesis in which Phoenix cash flow funds Griffin's permitting and construction, extending Wheeler River to a 15-16 year mine life producing over 100 million pounds, with Griffin ~3 km from Phoenix and able to leverage Phoenix infrastructure.

Phoenix is Canada's first in-situ recovery uranium mine, now in full-scale construction with first production targeted for the second half of 2028. Phoenix's two-year construction, short by mining standards, avoids sinking a shaft or mill and is funded through a convertible bond plus uranium inventory sales. At full ramp, Phoenix will average 6 million pounds of uranium per year over a 10-year mine life — among the largest new uranium mines. Denison funds Phoenix with low equity dilution by selling physical uranium stockpiles acquired in 2021 at ~$30/lb, now realizing above $90/lb on fixed contracts. The Griffin underground uranium project (~$737M capex) is being technically de-risked to follow Phoenix, funded from Phoenix cash flow rather than new equity.

Denison Mines Update | David Cates and Geoff Smith

• Top takeaway Says Phoenix remains on track for first production by mid-2028 after about 24 months of construction, with 2026 focused on civil and earthworks for the process-plant slab and starting the perimeter freeze fence, which takes 12-14 months to establish.
• Reports post-FID capex of about $600 million, up from the 2023 feasibility study on inflation and improved cost precision, with engineering near 90% complete and all large-diameter wells in phase one for maximum well-field flexibility.
• Contends Phoenix is largely insulated from oil-price swings ($60 in January to $100 in March 2026) because the provincial power grid now reaches the site and can power the energy-intensive freeze wall instead of diesel.
• Expects Phoenix cash flow to fund the roughly $737 million Griffin underground mine internally, lifting the combined profile to a 16-18 year mine life and more than 100 million pounds of production.
• Positions Team Denison stakes in juniors such as Cosa, Foremost, and Skyharbour as a way to amplify discovery exposure across the Athabasca Basin without diverting focus from executing Phoenix.

Denison started construction at Phoenix, its in-situ recovery (ISR — wells and solutions, no shafts) uranium mine, targeting first production by mid-2028. Post-FID capex for Phoenix is set at $600 million, up from the 2023 feasibility study, reflecting inflation; provincial grid power limits diesel exposure. The McLean joint venture with operator Orano delivered Denison's share of about 150,000 pounds in 2025, adding to its held physical uranium inventory. Management aims to fund the Griffin underground mine from Phoenix cash flow, targeting a combined 16-18 year mine life and over 100 million pounds. A 'Team Denison' portfolio of junior partners (Cosa, Foremost, Skyharbour) spreads exploration across the underexplored Athabasca Basin while construction stays the priority.

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• Top takeaway Cates says Phoenix, the first new Canadian uranium mine approved in over 20 years, starts construction in March 2026 with first production targeted for mid-2028: a 10-year life averaging about 6 million pounds a year, front-loaded at 8-9 million.
• A January 2026 update put post-FID capex at about $600 million, up from the 2023 study mainly on inflation, with about 90% of engineering complete and the provincial grid now connected to the site.
• He plans to build Griffin with Phoenix cash flow so it produces before Phoenix ends, stretching the combined profile to 16-18 years and over 100 million pounds, and expects to fund Griffin's $737 million internally.
• Denison ended 2025 with just under $700 million in cash, physical uranium and investments, and still holds a large purchased-uranium inventory (about 7 million pounds) to support financing and early deliveries.
• He positions Denison as the low-risk new supplier — already producing at McClean North with Phoenix to follow — noting growth now rests on emerging producers because incumbents refuse to expand, and that Team Denison stakes in Cosa, Foremost and Skyharbour add discovery exposure.

Uranium's term price (the long-term reference price) holds near $90 per pound, its highest level since 2008, anchoring a firm spot market. Producers are holding output flat while utilities and state buyers like India return, signaling intensifying competition for future pounds. Denison Mines has started construction at Phoenix, the first new Canadian uranium mine approved in over 20 years, targeting production by mid-2028. NexGen says fully permitted Arrow will produce up to 30 million pounds annually — about 20% of world mine supply — with construction underway. Contract terms are shifting toward sellers: ceilings near $150 per pound, some deals with no cap at all, ending the $30 fixed-price era.