Bob Thompson
Senior Portfolio Manager | Raymond James | Precious Metals & Mining Cycle Analyst
"Mining cycle framework and contrarian precious metals analysis"
Biography
Bob Thompson is a Senior Portfolio Manager at Raymond James in Vancouver, where he manages portfolios with a focus on precious metals and mining equities. He has become a recognized voice in the resource investment community for his analysis of commodity bull and bear cycles — particularly his framework for identifying where we are in the cycle and what that means for gold and silver investors.
Thompson's approach centers on what he calls the "mining clock," a framework for gauging where the mining sector sits within its broader cyclical rhythm. He pays close attention to the TSX Venture Exchange (TSXV — Canada's junior stock exchange, home to most small-cap mining companies) as a sentiment barometer. When the TSXV sat more than 65% below its prior peaks despite broader equity strength, Thompson flagged it as evidence the mining sector remained deeply undervalued and unloved — a condition he views as a setup for significant capital rotation into the sector.
His analysis blends technical indicators with sentiment reading. Thompson tracks positioning data — including commercial short positions in gold and silver — alongside momentum and breadth measures in mining shares. He has repeatedly emphasized that extreme pessimism in the mining sector, while uncomfortable, historically creates the strongest buying opportunities. Rather than reacting to headlines, he assesses how much news is already priced in, looking for gaps between sentiment and fundamentals.
Thompson focuses primarily on gold and silver, with particular attention to junior miners and the Canadian small-cap mining universe. He has publicly argued that we are in the early-to-middle innings of a commodity bull market — not the beginning, but far from the end. Investors following Thompson gain a disciplined framework for thinking about timing, valuation, and emotional discipline in a sector notorious for punishing both early entrants and latecomers.
Videos (2)
The Biggest Mistake Gold & Silver Investors Make | Bob Thompson #shorts
Thompson argues that volatility is a normal feature of precious metals bull markets, not an anomaly to fear. Parabolic price rallies in gold and silver typically trigger sharp corrections before sustained advances continue. Thompson contends that disciplined, patient investors are rewarded while short-term participants panic sell during pullbacks.
Gold and Silver at a Breaking Point: Is the Next Major Rally About to Begin? | Bob Thompson
Thompson argues that extreme pessimism in precious metals sector creates a contrarian buying opportunity for gold and silver mining shares. Silver's recent price breakout signals a potential structural shift, though Thompson expects significant volatility before any sustained rally develops. Thompson warns that AI and technology stock euphoria mirrors past market bubbles, recommending gold exposure as portfolio defense against eventual corrections.
Key Quotes
"How many assets in the world are down 65% from their highs? Not many."
— Sprott Money interview on gold and silver cycle investing
"We are in the middle innings of a commodity bull market cycle."
— The David Lin Report podcast
Key Works
Monthly wrap-up with Craig Hemke for Sprott Money breaking down the current position in the precious metals cycle
Sprott Money blog interview covering technical analysis of gold, short positioning, and market structure
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