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Barry Eichengreen

Distinguished Professor of Economics and Political Science | UC Berkeley | Economic historian of gold, the dollar, and the international monetary system

"Leading economic historian of gold and the dollar — from Golden Fetters to today's central bank gold buying and the future of dollar dominance."

Educator

Biography

Barry Eichengreen is a Distinguished Professor of Economics and Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley, and one of the world's leading economic historians of the international monetary system. Gold and mining investors should care because he studies, with hard data, the single largest new source of gold demand in recent years: central bank purchases. He does not pick mining stocks — his contribution is the monetary and geopolitical picture underneath the gold price, including the reserve currency role of the US dollar (the currency foreign governments hold as their savings).

His track record runs through the standard references on money and gold. His 1992 book Golden Fetters: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression, 1919–1939 made the case that clinging to gold deepened the Great Depression, and it remains the classic account of why countries that left gold recovered first. Globalizing Capital (1996) traced the full history of the international monetary system. Exorbitant Privilege (2011), shortlisted for the Financial Times Business Book of the Year award, argued that the dollar's special status — the cheap credit and monetary influence the United States gets because the world holds dollars — would erode gradually into a system with several major currencies, not collapse in a sudden crash. He has taught at Berkeley since 1987 and holds the Pardee Chair there.

His method is monetary history applied to present questions: study how reserve assets actually behave across past regimes, then let that record discipline the forecast. With Serkan Arslanalp and Chima Simpson-Bell, he wrote "Gold as International Reserves: A Barbarous Relic No More?" (IMF Working Paper, 2023; later in the Journal of International Economics), which documents why central banks — especially those facing sanctions risk after Russia's 2022 reserve freeze — are adding gold as a store of value no foreign government can freeze. He reads today's de-dollarization talk (efforts to reduce reliance on the dollar in trade and reserves) as slow erosion of the dollar's share, not its replacement by one successor.

An investor who follows him gets the demand side of the gold equation from its most documented source. He continues to publish on central bank gold buying, sanctions, and currency competition through his regular Project Syndicate column and his 2026 book Money Beyond Borders: Global Currencies from Croesus to Crypto. For mining investors, his work addresses the question that moves gold equities — why official-sector buying persists, and what would make it stop — better than most equity research.

Videos (1)

Barry Eichengreen: What History Reveals About the Dollar’s Future

Barry Eichengreen: What History Reveals About the Dollar’s Future

guest Aug 21, 2026
  • Top takeaway Eichengreen argues the most worrisome threats to continued dollar dominance now emanate from the United States itself, citing political polarization, institutional cracks, and unpredictable alliance commitments
  • He views the US Treasury's doubling of long-term debt issuance on the day of the interview as a worrisome sign of fragile confidence in US bonds
  • He contends neither the euro nor the renminbi can fill the dollar's shoes today given insufficient high-quality, liquid alternatives at scale
  • He fears the United States is betting on the wrong horse in the stablecoin-versus-tokenized-deposits race, which could work to the dollar's detriment over time
  • He expects only modest continued central-bank gold diversification, with gold's price volatility limiting its role in cross-border payments

Barry Eichengreen outlines three preconditions for international currency status — economic strength, stable polity, and power projection. Digital technology is eroding the network effects that historically locked in incumbent reserve currencies, including the dollar. Neither the euro nor the Chinese renminbi can currently fill the dollar's role at scale if confidence collapses. The US may be betting on the wrong horse by backing fiat-linked stablecoins over tokenized bank deposits and CBDCs. Most of gold's rising share in central bank reserves is a price effect, not active buying, limiting its monetary utility.

Showing 1–1 of 1 videos

Key Quotes

"Central banks' purchases and repatriation of gold are on the rise, and both should be viewed as a symptom of deglobalization."

— "Gold's Grim Message," Project Syndicate, May 11, 2026

"People have been predicting the demise of the dollar for half a century."

— Q&A with The Wall Street Journal on the end of dollar dominance

Key Works

History and future of the dollar's reserve currency role; shortlisted for the Financial Times Business Book of the Year award.

With Serkan Arslanalp and Chima Simpson-Bell. Documents central banks' return to gold as a reserve asset, driven by sanctions risk; later published in the Journal of International Economics.

Project Syndicate column reading central bank gold purchases and repatriation as a symptom of deglobalization.

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