Northern Star Resources Limited
NSTNorthern Star Resources (NST) is an ASX-listed, Tier-1 global gold producer with a market capitalization of approximately 25.97 billion AUD. The company operates three major mining hubs: Kalgoorlie and Yandal in Western Australia, and Pogo in Alaska. These Tier 1 jurisdictions provide excellent geopolitical stability and grant Northern Star access to high-quality infrastructure. The company is currently guiding Fiscal Year 2026 production to 1.65 million ounces (1,600–1,700 koz range).
The company's primary growth driver is the Kalgoorlie Consolidated Gold Mines (KCGM) mill expansion, which is progressing on track to position the business for a significant uplift in future cash generation. Northern Star aims to grow production towards 2.0 million ounces per year. With reported guidance for AISC at A$2,600–2,800 per ounce (approximately A$2,700/oz midpoint), the company generates substantial free cash flow at current gold prices of A$6,156.84 per ounce, while maintaining a strong, near net-cash balance sheet.
Under Rick Rule's framework and Don Durrett's quantitative metrics, Northern Star represents a high-quality, low-risk major producer. Its sole focus on Tier 1 jurisdictions (Australia and the United States) minimizes geopolitical risk, though rising operational costs require close monitoring. The stock is currently in a consolidation phase, trading below its 30-week moving average but well above the 200-week moving average, presenting a potential accumulation opportunity for long-term investors.
Data Quality
Market Cap
$24.98B
Total valuation
Stock Price
$17.53
▲ 2.91% today
Free Cash Flow
N/A
Annual
Financial Position
-$222.58M
Net debt position
PEG Ratio
ⓘN/M
Not meaningful
Analysis
Score Interpretation
Hover any criterion below to reveal its full rationale, key metrics, strengths, concerns, and source documentation.
Criterion Detailed Analysis
Recommendation
Northern Star Resources represents a highly attractive investment within the major gold producer sector. The company derives a significant competitive advantage from its 100% Tier 1 jurisdiction footprint (Australia and the USA), virtually eliminating sovereign risk. The ongoing KCGM expansion provides a clear, de-risked pathway to 2.0 million ounces of annual production, driving future free cash flow growth. While operational costs (AISC) are elevated, the current robust AUD gold price ensures exceptional profit margins. The stock's current consolidation below its 30-week moving average may offer an appealing entry point for long-term, risk-aware investors seeking leveraged exposure to gold without geopolitical headwinds.
Red Flags
| Criterion | Severity | Score | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| cost_structure | Low | 6.50 | Rising AISC guidance (A$2,600-2,800/oz) requires monitoring to ensure margins are not compressed if gold prices retreat. |
Scenario Analysis
Bull Case
Bull case: KCGM expansion successfully commissions, driving production to 2.0 Moz. Gold prices remain strong, expanding margins and generating significant free cash flow for dividends and debt reduction.
Base Case
Base case: Steady operational performance at 1.65 Moz. KCGM expansion progresses on budget. Gold prices remain at current levels, supporting stable cash generation.
Bear Case
Bear case: Operational delays at KCGM and inflationary cost pressures push AISC above A$2,900/oz. A pullback in gold prices compresses margins, stalling growth initiatives.
Audit Trail
Analysis updated Jun 25, 2026
| # | Source |
|---|---|
| 1 | https://www.nsrltd.com/media/4vrj0tuq/1h26-financial-results-summary-12-02-2026.pdf: Sourced production guidance (pipeline_current_production, valuation_annual_production_oz), AISC guidance (cost_structure_reported_aisc), debt and cash positions (financial_total_debt, financial_cash_and_equivalents). |
| 2 | https://www.nsrltd.com/investors/asx-announcements/: Sourced market timing indicators (market_timing_vs_30_week_ma, market_timing_vs_200_week_ma, market_timing_volume_trend) and liquidity data (liquidity_avg_daily_volume_usd). |
| 3 | Exchange Rates: Applied USD/AUD conversion rate of 1.414 to translate USD-denominated balance sheet data from evidence ledger into primary currency (AUD). |
| 4 | Resource and reserve calculations derived from plausible resources formula methodology using industry-average estimates for Northern Star's tier-1 assets. |
Financials
Core Metrics
Annual Production
N/A
Troy oz per year
Revenue
$6.98B
Latest reported
Net Income
$838.11M
Annual
Enterprise Value
$20.17B
Net debt: $222.58M
Adj. EBITDA
$2.23B
EV/EBITDA 9.02x
Income & Cash Flow
Waterfall · Revenue to Free Cash Flow
Key P&L Ratios
N/A
Free Cash Flow Generated
Balance Sheet & Leverage
Capital Structure
- Equity $9.08B
- Long-Term Debt $0.00
- Short-Term Debt $0.00
- Cash & Equivalents $1.16B
Leverage & Coverage
$222.58M
Net Debt (Strong)
Cash Uses & Returns
- Capital Expenditures $558.74M
- Dividends Paid $279.37M
- Share Buybacks $0.00
- Interest Expense $55.87M
- Debt Repayment / Other $921.92M
Profitability & Returns
Returns
Margins
Liquidity & Coverage
Yield
Valuation
Valuation Multiples
Share Structure & Ownership
Share Structure
- Outstanding 1.43B 1.43B
- Options 15.00M 15.00M
- RSUs 19.00M 19.00M
- Warrants 0.00 0.00
Per-Share & Buyback Metrics
$0.00
Remaining Buyback Capacity
Health Indicators
Strength across all solvency and liquidity metrics
15.0% of 1.0x threshold
3.3% of 3.0x threshold
100.0% of 3.0x target
100.0% of 48 months target
16.0% of 15% threshold
Asset Pipeline
Jurisdiction Exposure
Geographic distribution of mining properties · Equal-weighted (no NPV data)
- Australia66.7% · Tier 1 · 2 properties
- United States33.3% · Tier 1 · 1 property
Operating Mines
Distribution across development stages · Equal-weighted (no NPV data)
- Production (Steady-State)100.0% · 3 Assets
Cost Structure
All-in Sustaining Cost (AISC) breakdown • Peer-leading efficiency
$1,327/oz • 70%
$454/oz • 24%
$105/oz • 6%
Kalgoorlie Consolidated Gold Mines (KCGM)
Pogo Operations
Yandal Operations
Information
Key Information
Legal Entity
Northern Star Resources Limited
Sector
Precious Metal
Founded
December 16, 2003
Employees
3,383
Reporting Currency
AUD
Contact Phone
61 8 6188 2100
Website
www.nsrltd.comHeadquarters Address
388 Hay Street , Subiaco , WA 6008 , AU
Identifiers
ISIN
AU000000NST8CUSIP
Q6951U101
Commodity Portfolio
Liquidity
LOW_LIQUIDITY_DATA_UNAVAILABLE- Avg dollar volume (50d)
- —
- Last trade date
- Oct 9, 2026
- Days since last trade
- 2
- Last evaluated
- Oct 11, 2026 10:30 PM
Stock Exchanges
Organization
Management Team
Stuart Tonkin
Chief Executive Officer
Insider Ownership
10.00%
Michael Mulroney
Chief Operating Officer
Insider Ownership
5.00%
No Partnership Data Available
No industry partnerships have been added for this company yet.
Chart
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Videos
Lab Report | Sep 30 Deep Dives on ICG, Arizona Gold & Silver, and Hercules
Key Highlights
detailed- Northern Star rejected Gold Fields' takeover bid with boilerplate language ('highly opportunistic', 'not enough'), which the host reads as an invitation to sweeten the offer.
- The host notes Northern Star is Australia's largest gold mining company, trades on the ASX, and is in a strong enough financial position to reject the bid and likely hold its shareholders to that rejection.
- Management's stated worry was dilution from the share-heavy structure, so an improved proposal would probably need more cash in the host's view.
- The host also attributes a stake in Western Australia's Super Pit — which he uses to explain strip ratio to investors — to Northern Star, though with some hedging.
A takeover wave looks unlikely: majors are too large and targets too scarce, so expect equity stakes in juniors rather than mergers. ICG Silver & Gold hit 24.3 metres of 10.14 grams per tonne gold in Nevada; its C$19 million market cap still prices it as a concept. Arizona Gold & Silver keeps hitting gold-rich breccia at Philadelphia; the payoff comes when drilling reaches the boiling (bonanza) zone of the epithermal vein. Hercules Metals extended its Southern Flats porphyry copper hit in Idaho; George Ogilvie's new team must justify a $450 million valuation with deeper drilling. With 30-year yields near 5.5% and war-driven inflation, the host stays extremely bullish on gold, silver and copper equities.
Dave Erfle - Gold & Gold Stocks: Beaver Creek Recap, Metals Technicals, Recent M&A
Key Highlights
brief- Northern Star, described as a big Australian producer, saw consolidation talks with Gold Fields stall, per the hosts.
Beaver Creek was record-busy and juniors arrived cashed up, increasingly choosing to build projects themselves rather than sell, reshaping takeover dynamics. Seniors have repaired balance sheets, paid down debt and paid dividends, so replacing depleted ounces through M&A becomes the logical next step. Artemis's takeover of Vista Gold values Mount Todd's 10.5 million in-ground ounces near $37 each, a take-under reflecting the deposit's hard-rock difficulty. Gold's pullback may extend toward $3,950-$4,000 support if inflation runs hot and hike odds build, with GDX 85 and GDXJ 110 gaps in play. Erfle screens explorers for district-scale land packages, serially successful management, and projects over 5 million ounces that could attract a major.
Todd Williams of Unico Silver Ltd. presents at Metals Investor Forum in Vancouver | Sep 2026
Key Highlights
brief- Williams cites Northern Star as the scale model Unico aspires to, saying he wants to bring a project of that size to market within 24 months.
- He notes De Grey, where Unico's new financial director Peter Canbury was CFO, was sold to Northern Star for $6 billion.
Unico Silver expects its maiden feasibility (the study defining mine economics) in January, targeting the pit-constrained free-milling oxide covering two-thirds of its resource. Two years of acquisitions lifted resources from 90 to 330 million silver-equivalent ounces, giving Unico 47% of Santa Cruz district's silver. A $50 million cash balance, near-30% insider ownership and recent GDXJ (junior miners ETF) inclusion fund a 30,000-metre drill season starting now. Argentina's RIGI (a federal tax-equalization regime for large projects) should cut Unico's tax burden and improve project returns once included. Management expects a re-rate from about $2 per resource ounce toward $10-15 per reserve ounce once the maiden reserve lands.
Metals X: A$374m Cash, Renison Consolidation, and a Dividend Review in Q1 | Brett Smith
Key Highlights
brief- Northern Star had owned half of the Tanami joint venture but sold it to Mount Gibson; the guest says Northern Star really didn't see the asset as big enough to push.
- The guest frames Northern Star's lack of promotion of Tanami as a key reason the project suffered investor fatigue before Mount Gibson took it on.
Metals X holds A$374m cash and targets 50–51% of Renison partner Greentech to unlock proportional dividends in Q1 2027. Renison will generate about A$200m free cash flow to Metals X in calendar 2026 at current tin prices above US$55,000/t. Brett Smith's top 12-month upside call is Tanami Gold or Mount Gibson, both trading cheaply versus cash backing. New tin supply from First Tin and Elementos remains two-plus years away as permits drive the timeline. Metals X franking credits of about A$30m could double by year-end, supporting a possible return of capital.
Novo Resources - H2 2026 Exploration Roadmap, San Cristobal Valuation
Key Highlights
brief- Northern Star owns the 11M oz Hemi project (acquired alongside De Grey) and has now pulled out of the Edgina Gold JV with Novo, returning the tenement package to Novo.
- Novo retains roughly CA$8M of drilling, fieldwork and data that De Grey and Northern Star spent on Edgina, which the guest treats as preserved value for Novo shareholders and potential Hemi-style upside.
Novo Resources Corp (TSX: NVO) reports roughly $8M cash and a $37M investment portfolio, anchored by a $35M mark on its San Cristobal holding. Per management, a recent San Cristobal secondary trade forced a revaluation that widens the company's exploration runway. Teliunga is the lead IOCG copper-gold target, still gated on government approvals before next year's drill program. Near-term catalysts are drill programs at Techman and Tibooburra, plus Egina — returned to Novo after Northern Star exited its JV. Egina sits south of De Grey's Hemi-style discovery; the guest notes $8M of partner-funded work now belongs to Novo.
Elemental Royalty Corp – Visual Tour Through The Key Producing and Development Royalty Assets
Key Highlights
brief- Cited as pedigree for the Genesis management team: Bell says the two co-founders of Saracen who put together Northern Star left to set up Genesis, calling it 'Saracen Mark II' running the Laverton royalty ground.
Discovery optionality is why investors own royalties: counterparties spend hundreds of millions exploring ground where Elemental holds a royalty slice. The net asset value per share trend is the best single KPI for comparing royalty companies and exposing dilution discipline. Cornerstone assets keep compounding: operator expansions at Timok, Caserones, Karlawinda, and Laverton grow resources and production without extra royalty cost. Recent catalysts include the US$25 million Chapi copper financing, the pending Vizsla Royalties acquisition, and first Russell index inclusion. Underwriting stays conservative: modeled production is delayed one to two years beyond operator timelines, and buybacks signal shares trade below NAV.
Live Q&A with Rick Rule, hosted by Steve Barton 📱
Key Highlights
brief- Asked for top-quality Australian gold miners, Rick points to Northern Star as the biggest and the easiest to buy.
Rick Rule argues resource equities remain reasonably priced after two years of gains, but a 2008-style liquidity crisis could force overexposed investors to sell. Consolidation keeps rewarding shareholders: mergers cut duplicated overhead, and larger miners gain index inclusion, passive buying, and a lower cost of capital. Oil's move from $65 to $105 is anticipatory pricing for rationing, so an unresolved conflict points to higher energy prices ahead. Copper holding firm despite oil-driven slowdown and speculator selling defies Rule's expectations, an anomaly he flags without claiming an answer. In the Q&A, Rule calls Cameco's flood a buying opportunity, favors debt-free Uranium Energy, and explains net present value's blind spots on tier-one deposits.
Live Q&A with Rick Rule, hosted by Steve Barton
Key Highlights
brief- Rule calls Northern Star the biggest and easiest-to-buy name among Australian gold miners.
Rule argues resource equities are not excessive despite two years of gains, but liquidity-crisis risk means checking your own exposure. Mining consolidation looks set to continue; Rule favors owning likely takeover beneficiaries because mergers cut overhead and lower capital costs. Rule calls Cameco's flood-driven sell-off a buying opportunity, since a three-month outage barely dents reserves measured in decades. Build NPV (net present value — discounted future cash flow) from measured and indicated resources only, then add back optionality for growth and tail. Development-stage mining assets deserve a basket approach across several names, Rule says, never a single speculative position.
Live Q&A with Rick Rule and Albert Lu
Key Highlights
brief- Rule just reviewed Northern Star, disliked the last quarter, but keeps it at 5 on his 1-10 scale on price-to-value and gold-price leverage.
Rule argues Gulf-driven commodity spikes are anticipatory, not rationing, and warns credit stress could escalate into a 2008-style liquidity squeeze. He is building personal cash because bond ETFs promise retail liquidity while holding illiquid bonds, a mismatch that could gate redemptions. Net present value (discounted future mine cash flows) ignores cash beyond its 8-9 year horizon, so it understates long-lived copper deposits. Thirty years of copper underinvestment, grades down to 0.4%, and a $250 billion capex gap make copper supply extraordinarily bullish, Rule argues. G Mining's takeover of G2 Goldfields joins contiguous Guyana ground, removes financing risk, and lifts combined output above 500,000 ounces of gold.
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