Robert Sinn: Agnico Eagle's bounce off $150 support sets up a Q2 earnings test
Technical analyst Robert Sinn says Agnico Eagle (AEM) bounced off major support at $150 on the NYSE and stays a cash generator with sub-$1,500 all-in costs even at about $4,000 gold. With miners priced for a lower gold price, he sees Q2 earnings as a potential rerating catalyst and would average down at support.
Investor angle
The level to watch on Agnico Eagle (NYSE: AEM) is $150 — support Sinn describes as major, and the level the stock bounced off the day before the July 1 interview. His argument: with all-in costs (per his estimate) under roughly $1,500 an ounce and possibly under $1,400, Agnico stays a cash generator even at $3,900–$4,000 gold, while the market is pricing miners for gold 10–20% below spot. That gap makes Q2 earnings (late July into August) his candidate catalyst for an upside rerating, since depressed expectations raise the odds of a positive surprise. He said outright he would "100%" average down at about $150 in AEM if he had cash available and his risk tolerance allowed — while cautioning that averaging down only makes sense when you genuinely understand the business better, and that any rally is "guilty until proven otherwise" until it confirms.
## A specific level, and a bounce off it
Gold stocks ended Q2 at maximum pessimism, and Agnico Eagle Mines (NYSE: AEM) is where technical analyst Robert Sinn sees the turn most clearly. On The KE Report (recorded July 1, 2026), Sinn — publisher of Goldfinger Capital — said AEM tested and held what he described as a major support level at $150 on the NYSE, bounced off it the day before the interview, and traded up more than 2% on the day as gold rallied back to roughly $4,100 an ounce to start the third quarter.
His framing of the backdrop: gold repeatedly flushed the $4,000 level in late June, briefly dipping to about $3,955 on the August futures contract before reclaiming that round number within hours. Sentiment indicators reached extremes he calls rare — the Daily Sentiment Index hit 10 for gold, a reading he says comes along about once a year, and gold-miner breadth (how many stocks in the sector are actually in uptrends) went to zero at the June lows. The quarterly gold candlestick for Q2 was, in his words, the most bearish in years: a bearish engulfing pattern, where a down quarter's range engulfs the prior quarter's, which technicians read as a sell signal.
Sinn is willing to call gold and the miners a cyclical bear market — gold down roughly 30%, silver nearly 50%, many individual stocks down 40% to 60% in a few months. But he argues that when everyone gets comfortable calling a bear market, the move is often close to done, and exhausted selling at a quarter turn is where reversals tend to start. Any rally, he cautions, is "guilty until proven otherwise" until it proves itself against falling moving averages.
## The margin gap at the heart of the Agnico case
The core of the argument is the distance between the share price and the business. Producers posted their second-fattest margins ever in Q2, behind only Q1, yet their shares sold off hard alongside the metal. Sinn contends current prices already discount a gold price 10%, 15%, even 20% below spot, and that miners could start to outperform again later in the summer as long as gold simply holds in a range near $4,000 instead of making new highs.
For Agnico specifically, Sinn points to a cost structure that keeps the business profitable even in his more bearish gold scenarios. He puts the company's all-in cost per ounce — the full cost of producing an ounce of gold, including the spending needed to sustain operations — under $1,500, and possibly under $1,400, though he says he is not certain of the exact figure. Alongside Newmont, he calls the seniors "cash cows" even at $4,000 or $3,900 gold, with very strong balance sheets and large share buybacks. Energy, the quarter's other cost scare, has faded as a concern: with WTI crude back under $70 a barrel, he treats diesel as a modest input for senior miners and the gold price as by far the biggest driver of their revenue and profit.
## Q2 earnings as the event
Sinn expects upcoming Q2 results — seniors and mid-tiers report from late July into August — to matter more than they have in a long time. His logic runs through expectations: the lower the share price and the lower market expectations are going into a quarterly print, the higher the probability of an upside surprise. In his view, Agnico and Newmont are particularly well placed for an upside rerating because the "rubber band may have stretched a little too far to the downside."
## Would he add at support?
Asked directly, Sinn said that with a Newmont or an Agnico Eagle he would "100%" average down at support — about $150 in AEM — assuming the investor has cash available and has assessed their own risk tolerance. He tempers that with his usual discipline: averaging down is generally how losers get made ("losers average losers"), and it only makes sense when you genuinely understand the business better at the lower price and can be honest with yourself about why you are buying.
## The takeaway
Sinn's Agnico thesis in one line: a stock testing a level he considers major support, in a business earning near-record margins with costs under $1,500 an ounce, is set up so that Q2 earnings — not the daily gold tape — become the event that could reprice it. Until the counter-trend rally confirms, he is interested but not convinced.
Generated by Pixys from the source video below. Not investment advice.
